Before a big decision, most teams ask what could go wrong. It's a sensible question that rarely gets an honest answer. Nobody wants to be the one who sounds negative about a plan everyone has just agreed.
In 1989, the researchers Deborah Mitchell, Jay Russo and Nancy Pennington found a better way to ask it. When people imagined an outcome had already happened and then explained why, they were around 30% better at identifying the reasons behind it.
The psychologist Gary Klein turned this into the premortem. Before you start, assume it's a year from now and the project has failed. Everyone takes two minutes to write down why.
It works because it changes the job.
You're no longer criticising the plan; you're explaining a result. People who would never challenge the boss in a meeting will happily write "we underestimated how long recruitment would take".
Elite sport does a version of this all the time.
Good teams rehearse going behind early, losing a player or playing in awful conditions, so the plan for a bad day exists before the bad day arrives.
Before your next big decision, try it.
It's failed. Why?